The price of aniline in Oct. hitting the record high for 2022

From the beginning of September, the domestic anilinemarket started to recover from thebottom and kept rising, with a monthlyincrease of 18%. In October, the price of aniline continued to rise high. As ofOctober 18, the mainstream domestic aniline transaction price has risen to RMB14,000/t (USD1,949/t) - RMB14,600/t (USD2,033.4/t), up 15% from thebeginning of October, with a cumulative increase of over 33% in 2 months,hitting a record high for this year. It has once been a significantlyprofitable product unique to the benzene industry chain.

Recently, the persistent domestic aniline market heatis mainly from thedemand peak pull up, and the fall in supply from overhauled producers.In addition, the high price of raw materials of benzene also played a supporting role in the continued heating of theaniline market. Against the backdrop of less profit and more loss in thebenzene industry chain, aniline is astandout. However, with the increased profitability, the risk of price declineis also gathering momentum.

From the downstream market, the methylene diphenyldiisocyanate (MDI) market has continued to rise since the beginning ofSeptember, which also gives support to aniline going higher. The mainstreamdomestic MDI transaction price rose from RMB14,400/t (USD2,005.6/t) to RMB14,900/t (USD2,075.2/t)in early September to RMB16,800/t (USD2,339.8/t)at the end of September, an increase of more than 13%. As of October 16, themainstream transaction price of MDI has exceeded RMB17,000/t (USD2,367.7/t).

Downstream industries such as auxiliaries, pesticidesand dyestuffs are also starting to improve successively. The overall downstreamdemand is relatively strong, which is good for aniline prices to go higher.

Overhauled enterprisesreducing supply again

In October, more enterprises overhauled their anilineplants and reduced their production load. Ata result, the overall market supply is reduced, which was one of the mainfactors why the aniline market was still strong and high in October.

Specifically, Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co., Ltd. andDongying Huatai Chemical Cooperation., Ltd. anilineplants are operating at 50%, Shanxi Tianji Coal Chemical Industrial Group Co.,Ltd. 2 sets of 130,000 tonnes/year anilineplants are scheduled to stop, and aniline plants of companies such as Jiangsu Fuqiang New Materials Co., Ltd. and Huatai are also scheduled for overhaul in themonth, with total capacity involving over 400,000 tonnes/year.

Industry insiders hold a cautious view on the post marketof aniline. Based on the inertia of the market trend and the limited socialcirculation, it cannot be ruled out that the aniline market will still be in astrong position in October. However, risks are gathering behind the highprices. The gradual release of production capacity and the presence of someuncertainties in the international market are likely to make the aniline marketchange again.