China Agricultural Outlook Report (2024~2033)

In Apr., 2024, the Expert Committee for MarketPre-warning, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China issued the China Agricultural Outlook Report (2024~2033).It’s stated in the report that China aimed to steadily improve itscomprehensive agricultural production capacity through implementing a new roundof action plans for improving grain production capacity by 50 billion kilogramsand conducting vigorous and effective promotion of overall ruralrevitalization. At the same time, the country will strive to reinforce itscapability of guaranteeing security and safety of grains and key agriculturalproducts and maintain the momentum of high-quality agricultural development.

It’s shown in the report that China would be able tostabilize its grain planting areas at around 118.9 million ha in 2033 by theaid of strengthening comprehensive production capacity of agricultural productsincluding grains and supporting agricultural policies.

Estimations of the grain yield per unit area in 2033 andtotal grain yield in 2033 are 6,435 kg/ha (429kg/mu), 766 million tonnes, respectively.The key driver for these achievements is the country’s effort on making newbreakthroughs in research and development of biotechnology for variety breedingwhich enables wide promotion of high-yielding and high-effective plantingtechniques and improving quality of arable lands.

Table: Forecaston key grain crops’ planting Area, yieldand demand in 2033E

Source: ChinaAgricultural Outlook Report (2024~2033).

Forecast on key grain crops are as follow.

²   Rice: Planting areas of rice will remain stable with aslight decrease. In 2033, the yield per unit area will gradually climb to 7,575kg/ha (505 kg/mu) and the total yield will be stabilized at above 210 milliontonnes.

The totaldemand for rice will remain stable with a small decrease because of influenceof multiple factors including upgrading residentconsumption structure, accelerating population ageing and reduction in totalpopulation in the country. The total demand will decrease at an annual averagegrowth rate of 0.2% and go down to 206.24 million tonnes in 2033.

Development of the overall rice planting and processing industrywill advance towards a direction of high product quality, established brandsand specialized features, and the effective supply capability of the marketwill be continuously enhanced. Therefore, domestically-grown rice will becomemore competitive on the market, and the volume of imported rice will be decreasing to around 3 million tonnes in 2033.

²   Wheat: It’sforecast that China’s total planting areas of wheat would be stable at around23.3 million ha in 2033, and the total yield would be increasing steadily andreach 146.26 million tonnes that year because of increase in yield per unitarea.

During the period between 2023 and 2033, the food processingindustry in China will be rapidly growing and the industrial demand for wheatwill be ever thriving. Yet, as the price competition between wheat and cornwill return to a normal status, demand for wheat as feed will largely go down,and the total demand for wheat will also fall from its currently high level.

Estimation of total demand for wheat in 2033 is 141.35 milliontonnes, with a 0.4% annual average decreasing rate during the period from 2023 to2033. And the volume of imported wheat will also drop because of increasingsupply of high-quality domestic wheat for special use on the market and become4.85 million tonnes in 2033.

²   Corn: Thetotal planting areas of corn will remain stable and reach 44.24 million ha in2033. Both the yield per unit area and the total yield will be increasing to7,290 kg/ha (486kg/mu) and 323 million tonnes by annual average growth rates of1.3% and 1.4%, respectively.

Demand for corn will be stable with a slight increase, reaching321 million tonnes in 2033 at an annual average growth rate of 1.1%. The importvolume of corn will be continuously decreasing and become 6.80 million tonnesin 2033.

²   Soybean: Theyield per unit area of soybean will rise remarkably. Estimations of theplanting areas, the yield per unit area and the total yield in 2033 are 12.30million ha, 2,901 kg/ha and 35.68 million tonnes at annual average growth ratesof 2.4%, 3.9% and 6.4%, respectively.

As the domestic supply of soybean becomes higher, the degree ofself-sufficiency will be climbing, and therefore the volume of imported soybeanwill fall from its current high level. Specifically, the self-sufficiency ratewill be over 30% in 2033, and the import volume to China will drop to 78.69million tonnes at an annual average rate of -1.9%.