NATESC: 2024 pesticide consumption to be stable overall, with changes in product structure

On 19 November, 2023, the National Agro-TechExtension and Service Center of China (NATESC) made its forecast on the occurrence of major crop insect pests and diseases nationwide and development trend of the domestic pesticide market in 2024 during the 37^th ChinaPlant Protection Information Exchange & Pesticide and Sprayer FacilitiesFair. In addition, the NATESC introduced its work priorities in the next year.

Predictionof occurrence trend of major crop insect pests & diseases in 2024

Based on analysis made from the NationalForecasting Network for Major Crop Insect Pests and Diseases and relatedexperts, infestation and infection of key pests and diseases of main graincrops including wheat, rice, corn and potato would be serious in 2024, and thetotal infected area would come to 136 million ha in the whole nation.

Occurrence of the following pests and diseasesshould be closely monitored:

²   Wheat: head blight, striperust, sheath blight, basal stalk rot, aphids

²   Rice: rice stem borer,rice leaf roller, sheath blight, rice blast

²   Corn: fall armyworm,armyworm, cotton bollworm, corn borer, southern corn rust, sheath rot

²   Other crops: potato lateblight, meadow moth, vegetable thrips, soybean Fusarium root rot

Table:Key pests and diseases and predicted occurrence areas in 2024

  Source: NATESC

Forecaston pesticide market trend in 2024

According to the NATESC, the domestic demand forpesticides in China would remain stable compared with the record for 2023 forthe following reasons.

First, applying pesticides is still the mainstreammethod to secure grain yield against pests and diseases and safeguard nationalgrain security and effective supply of key agricultural products.

Second, the government encourages and supportsreasonable application of pesticides for prevention and control of pests anddiseases, given the frequent and severe occurrence of key ones.

Third, since pests’ and diseases’ resistance topesticides is rapidly escalating, the actual consumption of pesticides hasalready approached the upper limit defined in product registration license.

In addition, there would be some changes in demandfor different categories of pesticides next year.

First, demand for biopesticides would continue tobe rising because of the public’s increasingly stringent requirements onquality safety of agricultural products, progressing promotion of green preventionand control of crop pests and diseases, expansion of farmland areas under greenprevention and control.

Second, change in demand for those major categoriesof pesticides would be different.

Specifically, demand for insecticides woulddecrease, since farmers are becoming more aware of the importance of earlyprevention and timely control at the early stage.

Demand for fungicides would be climbing because ofofficial encouragement of spraying mixed formulations of insecticide, fungicideand plant growth regulator at proper proportions during the mid-to-late growthstages of wheat for preventing occurrence of pests & diseases, damage fromhot-dry wind, and premature decay and spraying of mixed formulations ofinsecticide, fungicide, plant growth regulator, drought-resistant andwater-retaining agent etc. to promote plant growth, post-disaster recovery, andgrain filing & maturing during the mid-to-late growth stages of autumngrain crops.

Demand for herbicides would keep rising to copewith weeds that are bringing increasing harm due to accelerating land transferand population of simplified cultivation technique.

Demand for plant growth regulators would be growingremarkably in the following years because of large-scale campaigns promotingunit grain yield.

Third, demand for pesticides from growers of cashcrops would decrease in general. Yet, demand for drugs of high efficiency, lowresidue and low dosage will be robust.

NATESC’srecommendations to cope with drug resistance in 2024

1.       Brown planthopper: suspend applyingimidacloprid, thiamethoxam and buprofezin; restrict application frequency of dinotefuran,triflumezopyrim, nitenpyram and sulfoxaflor.

2.       Rice stem borer: suspend applyingchlorantraniliprole and abamectin in areas where the pests have generated high-levelresistance to them; rotate spinetoram and diacylhydrazines for pest control.

3.       Rice leaf roller: restrict application frequencyof chlorantraniliprole; rotate indoxacarb, emamectin benzoate and spinetoramfor pest control.

4.       Wheat aphid: restrict applying imidacloprid-basedwheat seed dressing agents; rotate seed dressing agents or seed coating agents containingthiamethoxam, clothianidin and phoxim for pest control.

5.       Cowpea thrips: apply Metarhizium anisopliae and matrine as priorities; restrictapplication frequency of emamectin benzoate and chlorfenapyr; rotate spinetoramand other drugs for pest control.

6.       Wheat scab: stop applying carbendazim and itsmixed formulations in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces; rotate prothioconazole, phenamacril,pydiflumetofen and tebuconazole for disease control.

7.       Rice bakanae disease: suspend applying phenamacriland its mixed formulations in areas where the pests have generated high-levelresistance to them; rotate drugs of different mechanisms of action such as tebuconazole,prochloraz and fludioxonil or use mixed formulations of them for diseasecontrol.

8.       Weedsin paddy fields: suspend applying penoxsulam and quinclorac for controlling barnyardgrassin areas where weeds have generated high-level tolerance in Northeast China andthe middle and the lower reaches of the Changjiang River Basin; rotate metamifopand cyhalofop-butyl for weed control.

9.       Weeds in wheat fields: suspend applying tribenuron-methylfor controlling tansy mustard, clodinafop-propargyl for American sloughgrass, fenoxaprop-P-ethylfor Japanese foxtail; applying pyroxasulfone, diflufenican and flufenacet for soilsealing treatment before pre-emergence after sowing.

NATESC’swork priority for crop protection in 2024

First, organize campaigns for securing grain yieldagainst pests and diseases and for providing technical guidance on controllingcrop pests and diseases based on principles of stabilizing grain cropproduction and increasing yield of oil-bearing crops as well as lifting unityield of the crops in large areas, in order to promote crop protectiontechnologies, improve crop protection efficiency, increase unit crop yield, andensure bumper crop harvest.

Second, organize selection and establishment of 100demonstration bases for green prevention and control of crop pests and diseasesin predominant areas cultivating fruit trees and tea trees and production basesof major grain and oil crops nationwide; organized selection of 100 technicalmodels for green prevention and control for promotion and application.

Third, vigorously promote products and technologiesfor green prevention and control of crop pests and diseases including ecologicalregulation, physical and chemical trapping control, biological control andscientific application of pesticides according to requirements stated in the No.1 Central Document andtheRegulations on Prevention and Control of Crop Insect Pests and Diseases toimprove quality safety of agricultural products.